Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett is edging closer to a 2026 bid for the Texas U.S. Senate, and she’s no longer shy about saying it. In recent interviews, Crockett has described herself as “closer to yes than I am no” on a run, stressing that internal data show she would be a “very formidable” statewide candidate. MS NOW+1
The seat she’s eyeing is currently held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who faces an increasingly messy GOP primary that already includes Rep. Wesley Hunt and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Wikipedia+1 That intraparty fight could leave the eventual Republican nominee bruised and short on cash heading into the general election, giving any well-known Democrat a better-than-usual opening in deep-red Texas.
Crockett’s chances can’t be separated from the numbers. A University of Houston/Texas Southern University poll of registered voters this fall found Cornyn leading Crockett 50–44% in a hypothetical matchup—within single digits in a state where Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate race since 1993. Wikipedia+1 Against Paxton, she’s even closer, trailing just 49–47%. Those margins suggest she begins as an underdog but far from a long shot, especially considering her name recognition lags behind long-time incumbents and that Texas’ urban and suburban metros continue to trend bluer.
Inside the Democratic Party, Crockett would not enter an empty field. Former Rep. Colin Allred and state Rep. James Talarico are already running, with Allred in particular polling well among Democratic primary voters. Wikipedia+1 Still, recent reporting from local outlets indicates that early surveys show Crockett running at or near the top of a potential primary lineup, thanks to strong support among Black and Latino voters and progressives energized by her combative performance on Capitol Hill. FOX 4 News Dallas-Fort Worth+1
Why does her decision matter so much? First, Crockett has built a national brand unusually fast for a freshman member of Congress. Viral committee-room clashes with hard-right Republicans, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, made her a fixture on cable news and social media, turning her into a favorite of the Democratic base and a sought-after surrogate on voting rights, abortion access, and attacks on democracy. TheGrio That profile could help her quickly raise money nationwide, a critical asset in a state as massive and expensive as Texas.
Second, a strong Crockett campaign would test just how competitive Texas really is in the post-Trump era. Polls already show Democrats staying within single digits in statewide races, and the coalition that powered recent Democratic gains—young voters, people of color, and suburban moderates—matches the audiences Crockett speaks to most effectively. University of Houston+1 If she keeps the race close, it could force Republicans to pour tens of millions into a state they once took for granted, draining resources from other battlegrounds and reshaping the national Senate map in 2026.
Finally, her run would be symbolically significant. Crockett, a civil rights attorney and one of the most prominent Black progressive voices in Congress, challenging a veteran Republican in Texas would send a message about where Democrats see their future. A competitive showing—or an upset win—could signal accelerating demographic and political change across the South and Southwest, encouraging the party to invest even more heavily in Sun Belt organizing.
Crockett says she’s now weighing not whether she can win, but whether she can assemble the kind of statewide coalition that showed up in recent elections and replicate it at scale. Latin Times+1 If she ultimately jumps in, the 2026 Texas Senate race won’t just be another red-state contest; it will be a high-stakes test of Democratic momentum and of Jasmine Crockett’s rising national star.
